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Objective:To investigate the change trend of etiological burden of disease of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019.Methods:The descriptive epidemiologic method was conducted. Based on the Global Burden of Disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the data related to liver cancer burden caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, alcohol, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and other factors, including number of new cases, the crude incidence rate, age-specific incidence rate, number of deaths, crude mortality rate and age-specific mortality rate, in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The age-standardized rate was calculated based on the world standardized population structure in 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease data. Observation indicators: (1) the incidence of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (2) the mortality of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (3) the change trend of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (4) the age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. Count data were expressed as absolute numbers, percentages and ratio. Based on the junction point regression model, the Joinpoint software (V.4.9.1.0) was used to calculate the annual percentage change, average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals ( CI) of age-specific incidence rate and age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies. Results:(1) The incidence of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the number of new cases of liver cancer in Chinese population decreased from 236 825 to 210 462, and the crude incidence rate decreased from 20.01/100,000 to 14.80/100,000. The new cases of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection and other factors showed a downward trend, and the absolute change rates were ?14.76%, ?3.98% and ?26.67%, respectively. The new cases of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH showed a increase trend, and the absolute change rates were 9.31% and 13.91%, respectively. (2) The mortality of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths of liver cancer in Chinese population decreased from 232 449 to 187 700, and the crude mortality rate decreased from 19.64/100,000 to 13.20/100,000. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection and other factors showed a down-ward trend, and the absolute change rates were ?23.34%, ?10.99% and ?33.75%, respectively. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by alcohol showed a slow downward trend, and the absolute change rate was ?0.51%. The number of deaths of liver cancer caused by NASH showed a increase trend, and the absolute change rate was 6.03%. (3) The change trend of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-specific incidence rate of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection, alcohol, NASH and other factors was ?3.61%(95% CI as ?4.10% to ?3.11%), ?3.57%(95% CI as ?3.99% to ?3.14%), ?2.79%(95% CI as ?3.24% to ?2.33%), ?2.65%(95% CI as ?3.09% to ?2.21%) and ?3.62%(95% CI as ?4.05% to ?3.19%), respectively. (4) The age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by different etiologies in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by HBV infection, HCV infection, alcohol, NASH and other factors was ?3.92%(95% CI as ?4.42% to ?3.41%), ?3.90%(95% CI as ?4.45% to ?3.35%), ?3.15%(95% CI as ?3.71% to ?2.58%), ?2.86%(95% CI as ?3.34% to ?2.38%) and ?4.09%(95% CI as ?4.64% to ?3.55%), respectively. Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019, the liver cancer burden of the Chinese population shows an overall downward trend, in which the liver cancer burden caused by HBV and HCV infection decreases the most, but HBV and HCV infection is still the main reason for the heavy burden of liver cancer. The age-specific incidence rate and age-specific mortality rate of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH show a downward trend, but the number of new cases of liver cancer caused by alcohol and NASH shows significant growth. The liver cancer burden caused by other factors shows a downward trend.
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BACKGROUND@#Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends.@*METHODS@#Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035.@*RESULTS@#Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group.@*CONCLUSION@#Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.
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Humans , Bayes Theorem , Liver Neoplasms , Risk Factors , Hepatitis C/complications , Hepatitis B , Hepacivirus , IncidenceABSTRACT
Objective:To analyze the changing trend of the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019, and predict the future development trend of liver cancer.Methods:The descriptive epidemiologic method was conducted. Based on the Global Burden of Disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, the crude incidence rate and total number, crude mortality rate and total number, age- and sex-specific incidence rate and number, age- and sex-specific mortality rate and number of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 were collected. The age-standardized rate was calculated using the year 2000 China's standard population. Observation indicators: (1) the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (2) changing trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019; (3) prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020-2044. Count data were described as absolute numbers, percentages and ratios. The Joinpoint V.4.9.0.0 software was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC), average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval ( CI) of age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in different time periods. The age-period-cohort model in the Nordpred package of R software (V.4.1.1) was used to predict the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020-2044. Results:(1) The incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 20.01/100,000 and 24.31/100,000 in 1990 to 14.80/100,000 and 9.71/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male popula-tion decreased from 27.88/100,000 and 34.76/100,000 in 1990 to 22.05/100,000 and 15.22/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude incidence rate and the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.63/100,000 and 13.51/100,000 in 1990 to 7.26/100,000 and 4.29/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population decreased from 19.64/100,000 and 23.97/100,000 in 1990 to 13.20/100,000 and 8.44/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese male population decreased from 27.03/100,000 and 34.10/100,000 in 1990 to 19.18/100,000 and 13.03/100,000 in 2019, respectively. The crude mortality rate and the age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese female population decreased from 11.78/100,000 and 13.64/100,000 in 1990 to 6.98/100,000 and 3.97/100,000 in 2019, respectively. (2) Changing trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019: the trend of age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population could be divided into 5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2001, year 2001 to 2005, year 2005 to 2010 and year 2010 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized incidence rate changed from 1.27%(95% CI as 0.81% to 1.73%, P<0.001) to 1.12%(95% CI as 0.91% to 1.33%, P<0.001) of the total Chinese population, from 1.68%(95% CI as 1.19% to 2.17%, P<0.001) to 1.65%(95% CI as 1.42% to 1.87%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.21%(95% CI as -0.32 % to 0.75%, P=0.406) to -0.14%(95% CI as -0.40% to 0.11%, P=0.241) of the Chinese female population, respectively. The trend of age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer in the Chinese population could be divided into 5 periods, namely year 1990 to 1996, year 1996 to 2000, year 2000 to 2005, year 2005 to 2012 and year 2012 to 2019. In these 5 periods, the APC of age-standardized mortality rate changed from 1.47%(95% CI as 0.74% to 2.20%, P=0.001) to 1.34%(95% CI as 0.78% to 1.90%, P<0.001) of the total Chinese population, from 1.96%(95% CI as 1.18% to 2.75%, P<0.001) to 1.79%(95% CI as 1.18% to 2.41%, P<0.001) of the Chinese male population and from 0.14%(95% CI as -0.54% to 0.82%, P=0.670 ) to 0.48%(95% CI as 0.02% to 0.93%, P=0.041) of the Chinese female population, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the AAPC of age-standardized incidence and age-standardized mortality rates of liver cancer were -3.22%(95% CI as -3.41% to -3.03%) and -3.51%(95% CI as -3.82% to -3.19%) in the Chinese population, -2.90%(95% CI as -3.10% to -2.71%) and -3.22%(95% CI as -3.57% to -2.88%) in the Chinese male population, -3.96%(95% CI as -4.17% to -3.76%) and -4.13%(95% CI as -4.43% to -3.82%) in the Chinese female population, respectively. (3) Prediction of the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in the Chinese population during 2020-2044: the age-standardized incidence rate of liver cancer would decrease from 9.51/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 5.78/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese population, from 14.84/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 9.75/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.28/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 1.88/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate of liver cancer would decrease from 8.40/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 4.62/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese population, from 12.91/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 7.59/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese male population and from 4.01/100,000 in 2015-2019 to 1.70/100,000 in 2040-2044 in the Chinese female population, respectively. The incidence number and mortality number of liver cancer from 2020 to 2044 would remain stable at around 160,000 per year and 140,000 per year in the Chinese population, 128,500 per year and 109,000 per year in the Chinese male population, 36,000 per year and 34,900 per year in the Chinese female population, respectively. Conclusion:The incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in the Chinese popula-tion show a significant downward trend from 1990 to 2019, and the incidence number and mortality number of liver cancer in the Chinese population will remain stable above 100,000 during 2020-2044.
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BACKGROUND@#The cancer burden in the United States of America (USA) has decreased gradually. However, China is experiencing a transition in its cancer profiles, with greater incidence of cancers that were previously more common in the USA. This study compared the latest cancer profiles, trends, and determinants between China and USA.@*METHODS@#This was a comparative study using open-source data. Cancer cases and deaths in 2022 were calculated using cancer estimates from GLOBOCAN 2020 and population estimates from the United Nations. Trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates in the USA used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and National Center for Health Statistics. Chinese data were obtained from cancer registry reports. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and a decomposition method were used to express cancer deaths as the product of four determinant factors.@*RESULTS@#In 2022, there will be approximately 4,820,000 and 2,370,000 new cancer cases, and 3,210,000 and 640,000 cancer deaths in China and the USA, respectively. The most common cancers are lung cancer in China and breast cancer in the USA, and lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for lung cancer and colorectal cancer in the USA have decreased significantly recently, but rates of liver cancer have increased slightly. Rates of stomach, liver, and esophageal cancer decreased gradually in China, but rates have increased for colorectal cancer in the whole population, prostate cancer in men, and other seven cancer types in women. Increases in adult population size and population aging were major determinants for incremental cancer deaths, and case-fatality rates contributed to reduced cancer deaths in both countries.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The decreasing cancer burden in liver, stomach, and esophagus, and increasing burden in lung, colorectum, breast, and prostate, mean that cancer profiles in China and the USA are converging. Population aging is a growing determinant of incremental cancer burden. Progress in cancer prevention and care in the USA, and measures to actively respond to population aging, may help China to reduce the cancer burden.
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Adult , Female , Humans , Male , Breast Neoplasms , China/epidemiology , Incidence , Liver Neoplasms , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Registries , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Objective@#To characterize the clinical epidemiological features of primary lung cancer patients based on massive clinical data.@*Methods@#The demographic and histological information of 8 081 primary lung cancer patients who were initially identified from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2013 in 16 hospitals from 6 provinces were retrospectively analyzed to determine the characteristics of different histological subtypes among different gender, age-group and birth cohort.@*Results@#Among the 8 081 lung cancer patients, 5 422 (67.10%) were male and 2 659 (32.90%) were female, the average age was (60.96±10.14) years. The most common histological subtypes of lung cancer successively were adenocarcinoma (ADC), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), small cell carcinoma and large cell carcinoma, and the proportions of these subtypes were 53.13%, 24.51%, 14.59% and 0.66%, respectively, which collectively accounted for 92.89%. The current highest smoking rate was observed in SCC patients, which was 62.45%, while lowest in ADC, which was 29.68%. The incidence of lung cancer in male was significantly higher that that of female, with a sex ratio of 2.04∶1. The highest sex ratio was observed in SCC, which was 9.14∶1, while lowest in ADC, which was 1.14∶1. The distribution of histological subtypes in male lung cancer patients was consistent with the general situation.While among the female lung cancer patients, the proportion of ADC was the highest (75.42%), followed by SCC (10.08%), squamous cell carcinoma (7.34%) and large cell carcinoma (0.39%). Analyzed by the birth cohort, the proportion of ADC gradually increased with the age, while the reduced tendency was observed in SCC (P<0.000 1).@*Conclusion@#Adenocarcinoma is the most important histological subtype of lung cancer, and the distribution characteristics of histological subtypes of lung cancer differs among genders, age and birth cohort.
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Objective To estimate the mean annual expenditure of patients with prevalent liver cancer in China on the perspective of the natural progression of the disease and to provide baseline information for liver cancer?related disease burden estimation and evaluation of prevention strategies. Methods A multicenter survey on liver cancer was conducted between 2012 and 2014 in 13 sites where the cancer screening program was conducted in Urban China, by face?to?face interviews with hospitalized patients. Data on basic information, clinical diagnosis and treatment, direct medical expenditure, and direct non?medical expenditure were collected. By?year expenditure and number of visits from the first visit to the end of the survey were analyzed. The trend for the two indicators in each year was analyzed. The subgroup analysis of factors such as sex and age was conducted. All the expenditure data were discounted to the year 2014 and presented in Chinese yuan. The statistical analysis was performed using the SAS 9.4 software. Results A total of 2 222 patients with liver cancer, with a mean age of 55.7±11.2 years, were included. Men accounted for 79.2% (1 759 cases) of the patients, women accounted for 20.8% (463 cases) of the patients, and 75.6% (1 679 cases) of the cases were from cancer hospitals. Stage Ⅰ cases only accounted for 14.1% (299 cases) of all the cases, and most cases were stageⅢorⅣ(62.6%, 1 325 cases). Of the cases, 64.4% (1 430 cases) had pathological information, and 83.6%(1 195 cases) were pathologically hepatocellular carcinoma. The sample sizes for the first 3 years from the first visit were 2 222, 149, and 57, respectively (by?year sample sizes thereafter were<50). The annual total medical expenditures for the first 3 years were 49 091 yuan (95% confidence interval [CI]: 47 376-50 806), 30 506 yuan (95% CI: 26 462-34 549), and 32 100 yuan (95% CI: 25 917-38 283) (P<0.001). The corresponding number of visits were 1.9, 1.6, and 1.5 (P<0.001). The trend for each province was consistent with the overall trend, while the down trend from years 1 to 2 varied among provinces, ranging from 1.4 (Zhejiang province) to 5.6 times (Henan province). For the trend in the first 3 years, differences were found in subgroups such as region (P<0.001) and treatment (P<0.05), instead of sex, age, stage, and other subgroups. Conclusions For liver cancer patients in China, the annual expenditure for the first year in the whole disease course was 1.6 times higher than that for the second year, which varied among provinces. However, information on annual expenditure for the later course of liver cancer is still limited.
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Cancer is one of the main diseases that greatly endanger human health. The incidence and mortality rates of cancer in China account to 23.7% and 30%, respectively, across the globe. This figure will further rise because of aging, intensification of industrialization and urbanization, lifestyle modifications, etc. Thus, the burden of cancer cannot be ignored. Cancer is caused by hereditary and environmental factors. Besides aging, other factors, such as infections and unhealthy lifestyles are also related to cancer development. Currently, the status of cancer prevention and control is facing a tremendous challenge. There are still some burning issues to be addressed in regards to im-plementing prophylactic measures systematically to reduce the incidence and mortality rates of cancer effectively.
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Objective@#To investigate trends of mean age of diagnosis for liver cancer during 2000 to 2014, which may provide basic information for making feasible cancer prevention strategies.@*Methods@#Based on the continuous cancer incidence data from 22 cancer registries of China between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014, the incidence by birth-cohort (year of birth between 1925 and 1994) and age specific incidence rates were calculated. The incidence of different age groups were also calculated. World Segi's population was used for age standardization. The liner regression model was applied to analyze the changing trend of mean age of diagnosis.@*Results@#In 2014, the incidence rate for population with 80 years older and above was 108.21 per 100 000, whereas the rate for population at 30-39 years old was 5.09 per 100 000. But the mean age of diagnosis for liver cancer showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2014. For male, it had increased from 58.80 to 62.35 (t=18.70, P<0.001) . For female, it had increased from 64.02 to 68.99 (t=20.50, P<0.001) . After age standardization, the mean age of diagnosis still showed increasing trend. Meanwhile, the proportion of liver cancer in people above 70 years old was 25.05% in 2014, which was higher than that in 2000 (22.49%).@*Conclusion@#The mean age of liver cancer incidence was increasing during 2000-2014.